Scope and boundaryUse low, base and high scenarios. The output is a planning range, not an observed result or guarantee.
4model layers
3required scenarios
0guaranteed outcomes
What the evidence supports
- Search volume and prompt count are not interchangeable denominators.
- AI referral sessions understate influence when answers do not produce a trackable click.
- Commercial value should use qualified rates and expected value, not total traffic multiplied by revenue.
Model layers and formulas
Keep observed inputs distinct from assumptions in the worksheet.
| Layer | Example inputs | Planning output |
|---|---|---|
| Demand | Non-branded impressions, validated volume, buyer-question count | Addressable decision set |
| Reach | Rank distribution, mention rate, owned citation share | Search and AI exposure ranges |
| Response | CTR, referral sessions, engaged-session rate | Qualified visit range |
| Value | Lead, opportunity, win rates and contract value | Expected pipeline and revenue range |
Build a forecast decision-makers can audit
01
Label each input
Mark it observed, benchmark-derived or assumed with a source and date.
02
Stress the sensitive rates
Use scenario ranges for CTR, referral visibility and conversion.
03
Replace assumptions
Update the model with observed customer data only when access is authorized.
Methodology
- Separated the funnel into demand, reach, response and commercial value.
- Required distinct search and AI denominators and a source label for every input.
- Specified low, base and high scenarios rather than a single precise forecast.
Limitations
- AI influence without referral data remains partly unobservable.
- Search demand estimates and conversion rates can vary materially by market and season.
- The model is not a substitute for customer analytics or finance review.
Questions
Can AI visibility be converted directly into traffic?
No. A mention or citation may not create a click. Use an observed referral rate when available and a clearly labeled range otherwise.
What is the most sensitive input?
Often qualified conversion and attribution assumptions, not the visibility percentage. Test all material rates with scenarios.
Sources and data
- Google Analytics traffic acquisition: Official source and session acquisition definitions used in the models.
- Google Search Essentials: Official search technical requirements, spam policies and core practices.
Found a changed price, product limit or source? Email team@radiusrank.com with the official URL. We preserve the snapshot date instead of silently rewriting historical data.